基于灰色动态GM模型与计算机模拟的丽江旅游前景预测(英文)

基于灰色动态GM模型与计算机模拟的丽江旅游前景预测(英文)Title: Prediction of Lijiang Tourism Development using Grey Dynamic GM

GM 基于灰色动态模型与计算机模拟的丽江旅游前 () 景预测英文 Title:PredictionofLijiangTourismDevelopmentusingGrey DynamicGMModelandComputerSimulation Introduction: Tourismplaysasignificantroleintheeconomyofmany countriesallovertheworldandcontributestothegrowthofhost cities'economies.Thetraditionalmethodsofforecastingtourism revenuesuchastimeseriesregressionanalysisandtrend extrapolationmodelshavelimitationsinprovidingaccuratefuture outcomes.Inrecentyears,theGreyModel(GM)hasgained popularityasaforecastingtool,anditsperformanceispredicted toimprovewhencombinedwithcomputersimulations.Thispaper aimstopredictthedevelopmentofLijiangTourismusingGrey DynamicGMModel(GDGM)andcomputersimulation. LiteratureReview: TheGreyModel(GM)wasdevelopedinChinaandisan efficientforecastingtoolthatcombinestheinadequacyofsmall dataanduncertainty,twoofthemajorcharacteristicsofgrey systems.TheGM1model,whichispartoftheGMfamily,hasbeen widelyusedintourismforecasting,anditssuccesshasprompted furtherdevelopmentofthefamily.TheGDGMmodelisoneofthe latestdevelopmentsintheGMfamilyandcanbeusedtosimulate thedevelopmentofasystembasedondynamics. Methodology: ThedatausedinthispaperwascollectedfromLijiang TourismBureaufrom2010to2020.Thedataincludestourist arrivals,tourismrevenues,andtouristattractions.Weusedthe GM1modeltoconductthefirstanalysisofthedatabefore applyingtheGDGMtosimulatethefuturedevelopmentof tourisminLijiang.Thesimulationprocesswasconductedusing theAnyLogicsimulationsoftware. Results: TheresultsoftheanalysisusingGM1modelsuggestedthat thereisanincreasingtrendinthenumberoftouristsvisiting