GMAT考试Argument写作范文参考

GMAT考试 Argument写作范文参考 　In this editorial the author asserts that opinion polls are little better th

GMAT考试Argument写作范文参考 Inthiseditorialtheauthorassertsthatopinionpolls arelittlebetterthanrandomguessestopredictingoutes ofpresidentialelections.Theauthorsbasisforthis assertionisthatopinionpollsmeasureonlythe preferencesofvotersatthetimeofthepollandthatmany voterschangetheirpreferencesseveraltimebefore voting―someremainingundecideduntilthemomenttheycast theirvote.Theauthorsreasoningisunconvincingintwo criticalrespects. Firstofaltthepredictionsbasedonrandomguessing aresuchthatthegreaterthenumberofcandidates,the lesslikelythepredictionwillbecorrect.Thereasonfor thisisobvious:randomguessingrequiresthatnooutside informationbeallowedtoinfluencetheguess.Predictions basedonopinionpolls,ontheotherhand,willdiffer considerablyfromthosebasedonrandomguessessimply becauseoutsideinformationwillinfluencetheresult.For example,inafour-personrace,randomguessingwouldyield thecorrectprediction25percentofthetime,whereasthe percentageofcorrectpredictionsbasedonopinionpolls wouldbemuchhigher.Thereasonforthisdisparityis simple.Opinionpollsenableustonarrowthechoices.That is,opinionpollsservetoreducethenumberofviable candidatesinthevotersmindandtherebyincreasethe