2020年世界经济形势年中报告

iiiContents TOC \o "1-5" \h \z Summary iHYPERLINK \l "bookmark30" \o "Current Document"Global macro

iii Contents Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................ i Global macroeconomic trends ............................................................................................................. 1 Global overview .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Scenarios and regional outlook ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Pandemic destroying jobs .......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Trade in goods and services ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Economic pain spreading through global trade networks ..................................................................................... 6 Asudden drop in global tourism and travel ............................................................................................................... 7 Commodity prices in afree fall ................................................................................................................................................. 8 Developing countries face mounting financial constraints ............................................................................................ 8 Rapid, bold but uneven policy responses ........................................................................................................................... 10 The world economy after COVID-19: Back to normal or anew normal? ............................ 12 Online economy the new reality? .......................................................................................................................................... 13 Developed economies: fiscal consolidation or higher taxes? ...................................................................................... 13 Developing countries: adebt crisis, high inflation or both? ........................................................................................ 14 Rising poverty and inequality ................................................................................................................................................. 14 Globalization facing an existential crisis .............................................................................................................................. 15 Stronger international cooperation for avoiding adebt crisis .................................................................................... 16 Regional economic outlook ................................................................................................................ 17 Developed economies ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 North America ...................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Japan and developed Asia ............................................................................................................................................... 17 Europe ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 17